Why are project deadlines and estimates always wrong?
Standard estimation methods like story points and three-point estimation fail to account for the hidden complexities that stretch development far past initial projections. This constant underestimation makes it impossible to plan reliable delivery dates, leading teams to miss about half of their targets.
What people tried
Every workaround mentioned in the threads below. We haven’t tested any of them — and nobody here is claiming they worked.
- 1Stopping the team from treating estimates as commitments
- 2Tracking where time actually goes and adjusting for meetings and admin
- 3Blocking calendar time for planned work
- 4Using statistical forecasting approaches and reforecasting continually
- 5Adding contingency and buffers to estimates
- 6Breaking down large items and eliminating unknowns early
- 7Customizing an existing platform instead of building from scratch
In their words
Unedited, most upvoted first, each linked to the thread it came from.
“I tried story points, three-point estimation, and whatnot. None of it has made our deadlines more accurate. We still miss roughly half of them.”source ↗
“160 hours later, you will realise that NOBODY will buy your so-called CRM”source ↗
“I built one for a small law firm I was helping out, took about 3 months for something usable. The hardest part was making it actually fit the workflow instead just being a fancy spreadsheet.”source ↗
Where this came up
People with this problem also raised
- 4Why is month-end close so rushed with a skeleton crew?
- 3Why does management give us arbitrary deadlines without explaining why?
- 2Why do restaurant buildouts and renovations always take months longer?
- 3Getting disciplined at work for missing billable hours targets
- 2Why is rushed custom software so insecure?
- 2Why won't HVAC contractors follow my Manual J report?